Melbourne is gearing up for the start of the Formula One season, with one of the most hotly talked about driver changes in recent history still on everyone’s lips. Lewis Hamilton’s decision to leave McLaren and shift to Mercedes for the 2013 season seemed to be a huge step back for his career when it was announced  – a decision perhaps driven more by money than a desire to be competitive. But with his new team posting some blindingly quick testing times, has Hamilton pulled a fast one on the entire F1 paddock?

There’s no doubt that at the end of the 2012 season, the Mercedes was perhaps the sixth – maybe even seventh – best car on the grid, having been outperformed in the last races by both Sauber and even Force India. While Hamilton crashed out of the final race of the season in Brazil – his final race for McLaren – it would be teammate Jenson Button who went on to win. Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg, the two Mercedes drivers, finished a paltry 7th and 15th. With Hamilton taking Schumacher’s place at Mercedes, it was clear there needed to be an improvement if the team wanted to match McLaren’s efforts at least.

Which, it seems, may have just happened. At the final winter test in Barcelona, with all the teams trying out their 2013 cars, Hamilton and Rosberg traded the fastest time of the four days backwards and forward, with Rosberg ultimately setting the fastest time of the entire pre-season testing. Suddenly, other drivers and teams began to admit that the Mercedes looked like a strong car. Looking at the relative pace of the McLaren and the Mercedes, it seemed that Lewis had made a step in the right direction. So far, so good. Mercedes, for their part, kept quiet about their chances. If anything, they were playing them down. Unfortunately, for Hamilton fans, there might be a reason behind that.

Yes, the Mercedes has been stunningly quick, but pre-season testing is often a tricky one to work out due to the lack of official information filtered out from the teams. A lot of the times are on speculative fuel loads or technical data, so it’s unlikely that we’ll see a real shake out of where the teams are until Saturday qualifying in Melbourne at the earliest. Mercedes had looked quick in pre-season testing in 2012, but didn’t impress much in Melbourne and then, apart from Rosberg’s first win in China, they faded without a trace for the majority of the season.

One of the major issues with their 2012 car – and one that, in fact, has bugged Mercedes for some time – is that the car destroyed the tyres much quicker than their competitors. This was particularly evident in warm conditions, the likes of which were not seen in pre-season testing either last year or this year (shocking, really; who didn’t see that coming in a wet Barcelona in Februrary?). If the same issue rears it head again, it won’t matter how quick the team are as they’ll simply fall down the order through constant pit stops.

It’s not just the pace of the Mercedes and Hamilton’s personal performance that rests on his decision to move though. The reputation of his teammate is another: Nico Rosberg has often seemed like the “nearly-man” of Formula One since his debut. His critics say that he’s never really outperformed his car and that while he frequently outscores his teammates, none of those have been of the highest talent level. Hamilton comes to Mercedes at the top of his game, so Rosberg will have to use his three years of experience in the car to try and prove he is at the level of Lewis and the other top drivers.

Lewis’ decision to flee the McLaren nest also leaves them in an awkward spot. As previously mentioned, the McLaren was nowhere near the pace of the Mercedes at the final test and the team have come out to say they’ll need to “take risks” in order to win races. Hiring Sergio Perez from Sauber as Hamilton’s replacement is a risk by itself; while Perez was blindingly quick on occasions in 2012, his form towards the end of the season was shocking and he found himself beaten by then-teammate Kamui Kobayashi – who didn’t even keep his job despite such success.

So there remain a lot of questions around Hamilton and the two teams he holds nearest to his heart. Lewis is not one to hide his emotions and he seems visibly happier in his new surroundings and has seemed upbeat in the buildup to Melbourne (particularly with the media falling in love with his new pet bulldog, Roscoe). If the team have made the big step up then we’re on course for one of the tightest seasons in history, with Red Bull and Ferrari both looking strong as ever and the unpredictable Lotus duo of Raikkonen and Grosjean right in the mix as well. Personally, I can’t wait for the lights to go out in Melbourne.